April1 was April Fools Day. It was also the sign-up deadline for Obamacare.
To publicize the triumph of his signature social policy, President Obama held a get together (aka, a “victory lap”) in the White House Rose Garden to celebrate.
Thumping his chest, Obama declared victory over the forces of darkness, that is to say Republicans, and declared that 7.1 million people had signed up for private healthcare policies.
Internet acolytes, such as the proprietor of the “ACA Signups” website, quantified Obama’s claim with precise, but dubious, verisimilitude:
“7,080,180 Private Healthcare Plan enrollments”, sayeth the internet. You want numbers, Forces of Darkness? We got numbers.
And to really double down on verisimilitude, ACA Signups acknowledges that maybe not all 7,080,180 sign-ups actually paid for their plans, so cautiously allows that maybe only “90%”.
This yields a “real” sign-ups number of “PAID or UNPAID FOR LEGIT REASONS” of 6,372,162.
The Associated Press reports that in the State of Nevada “As of Saturday, 40,500 consumers had selected qualified health plans through the exchange. Of those, 24,000 had paid for coverage….”
40,500 sign-ups? 24,000 paid? That would be only 59% paid.
ACA Signups’ “estimate” of 90% seems deceptive. Oh wait. I meant to say “generous”, or possibly “at odds” with the Associated Press.
So if the real fraction of Obama’s 7.1 million enrollees is NOT 90% but 59%, then the number of people obtaining private healthcare plans from the Obamacare exchanges is 4,192,662.
Let’s be generous and call it 4.2 million.
4.2 million is not 7.1 million.
It’s noteworthy that the government sometimes gets testy when it’s subjects report numbers that diverge as much as 4.2 diverges from 7.1. Try telling the IRS that your income tax deductions were 7.1 percent when they were only 4.2 percent and see what happens.